After dealing a major blow to the opposition Grand Alliance by breaking away from the JD(U), the BJP now faces the challenge of seat distribution for the upcoming elections in Bihar. With the inclusion of JD(U) and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), the NDA coalition in the state now consists of seven parties. This puts the JD(U) at a disadvantage, while the BJP will have to work on keeping its allies on board to achieve a clean sweep.
The BJP’s strategy is to limit the Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD, to the Yadav-Muslim voter base. After parting ways with JD(U), the party had targeted leaders such as Upendra Kushwaha, Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Chirag Paswan of the LJP, while negotiations with VIP’s Mukesh Sahni were in the final stages. The BJP had formulated a formula to contest on 28 seats and leave 12 seats for allies. However, with JD(U) joining, the party will have to come up with a new formula.
The JD(U) will be the most affected by the seat distribution. According to BJP sources, the JD(U), which contested on 17 seats in the last election, will be given 10 to 12 seats this time. The BJP itself will contest on a maximum of 20 seats. The remaining seats will be given to both factions of the LJP, VIP, HAM, and RLSP. The challenge for the party is that the opposition Mahagathbandhan is waiting for a rift in seat distribution. Keeping this in mind, JD(U)’s other allies can demand seats under the old formula.
The BJP is not in a position to let go of any of its allies to repeat its previous performance. With the inclusion of JD(U), the party will now be connected to the extremely backward castes. However, to secure the Dalit vote, the party will need to maintain its alliance with both factions of the LJP and Jitan Ram Manjhi. Similarly, to maintain the Kushwaha equation, the party needs Kushwaha. With JD(U) out, the BJP was planning to create a new social engineering through these parties.
The challenges are as follows: If VIP enters the NDA, it will have to be given two seats. The BJP has already promised two seats to Kushwaha and one to Manjhi. Both factions of the LJP are demanding six seats each. RJD has its eyes on Chirag Paswan. If both factions agree to six seats each, it will save 29 seats for the BJP and JD(U). However, if Chirag increases the pressure, this number may decrease.
बिहार में विपक्षी इंडी गठबंधन को झटका देने के बाद भाजपा के सामने चुनौती सीटों के बंटवारे की है। जदयू के साथ आने के बाद राज्य में राजग के कुनबे में सात दल हो जाएंगे। भाजपा को सहयोगियों को साधे रखने के लिए अपना दिल बड़ा करना होगा। भाजपा की रणनीति राजद की अगुवाई वाले महागठबंधन को यादव-मुस्लिम मतदाता वर्ग तक ही सीमित कर देने की है। जदयू के साथ छोड़ने के बाद भाजपा ने उपेंद्र कुशवाहा, जीतन राम मांझी और लोजपा के दूसरे धड़े के नेता चिराग पासवान को साधा था। भाजपा को नई सोशल इंजीनियरिंग तैयार करनी होगी।
